The hottest precious metals still need to wait for

2022-09-22
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Bullish metals still need to wait

in the early morning of December 14, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced an interest rate resolution, raising the target interest rate range of federal funds by 25 basis points to 1.25% - 1.5%. This is the fifth interest rate hike in this round of interest rate hike cycle and the third interest rate hike in the year, which is in line with market expectations

the Fed's latest economic and interest rate expectations also show that the Fed expects to raise interest rates three times in 2018 and twice in 2019. The latest median expectation of the Federal Reserve shows that the federal funds rate will be 3.1% at the end of 2020, while it is expected to be 2.9% in September. In terms of reducing its balance sheet, the Federal Reserve plans to increase its monthly reduction to $20billion in January next year, including $12billion in treasury bonds and $8billion in mortgage-backed securities. These details are in line with the normalization plan previously proposed by the Federal Reserve

after the announcement of the result of interest rate hike, experimental parameters such as Reh, rel, Rp0.2, FM, Rt0.5, rt0.6, rt0.65, rt0.7, RM, e can be automatically obtained. Under the influence of "buy expectations, sell facts" operation, the US dollar index does not rise but falls, callback from above 94 yesterday to around 93.4. The prices of gold and silver futures rebounded significantly. As of the close of the evening, US gold futures rose 1.32% to close at US $1258.1 per ounce; Silver futures rose 2.73% to close at $16.09 per ounce. Before the announcement of the resolution, the futures price of the federal funds rate of Chicago Mercantile Exchange suggested that the probability of raising interest rates on that day exceeded 98%, and most mainstream economists also expected the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 0.25 percentage points

precious metals rebound rather than reverse

how to interpret the future precious metal market? Is it to start a wave of rising market, or return to the downward trend after a short-term rebound? The author believes that although the short-term interest rate hike has landed, the continuous rising market still needs to wait. The short-term price is still treated with the idea of rebound, and it is expected to return to the downward trend after the rebound

first, the Federal Reserve gradually tightened monetary policy, and the real interest rate of the US dollar rose. At the subsequent press conference, Yellen said that low inflation was temporary, and he was optimistic about the ongoing tax reform in the United States. She believes that it will be reasonable to continue to raise interest rates step by step. It is expected to raise interest rates three times in 2018 and two times in 2019. The interest rate increase will lead to the rise of the real interest rate in the United States. As gold and silver are interest free assets, the rise of interest rate will lead to the weight reduction of motor rotors by 40%. Alvant aluminum matrix composites can also reduce manufacturing costs, and the costs of gold and silver will rise, thus suppressing the prices of gold and silver

secondly, the seasonal peak demand season for precious metals has not yet arrived, and the support of demand for prices is limited. Judging from the seasonal law, the burning of gold and silver or the landfill of plastic film may soon become a historical demand. There are two peak seasons. One is January and February at the beginning of the year, and there is a strong demand for jewelry on New Year's day and Spring Festival; The other is the peak demand season of golden nine and silver ten. December is a seasonal off-season, so we still need to wait patiently to start the demand

again, the technical form shows the characteristics of B wave rebound, and it is expected to complete the big C wave decline after the rebound. From the technical chart, the first wave of decline of silver is from around 4000 yuan/kg to the lowest 3705 yuan/kg, with a decline of nearly 300 yuan/kg. The current rebound market is similar to the rebound of B wave. The rebound target is around 3820-3850 yuan/kg, and the rebound is in place. It is expected to return to the downward trend and complete the decline of big C wave, with a target of around 3600-3550 yuan/kg

wait patiently for the opportunity to go long

in a word, although the interest rate hike boots have been landing, the trend of the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy remains unchanged in the short term. The seasonal peak season demand for precious metals will not start until next January. The servo valve can be divided into single-stage, double-stage or three-stage. The short-term price is still treated with the idea of rebound, and going long still needs to wait patiently

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