Three investment stages of the hottest wind power

Three investment stages of wind power equipment market

with more and more investors optimistic about and involved, the domestic wind power equipment market will show a clear development outline in the next few years

year: those who get technology win the world

year will be a turbulent dispute stage for wind power equipment manufacturers, and technology will be the key factor to determine whether manufacturers can survive and grow. Manufacturers who can stand out from more than 50 wind power complete machine manufacturers need to meet the following conditions:

the introduced and developed models are mature and advanced: because the products of major foreign manufacturers are also in short supply, Therefore, they are reluctant to sell the best-selling and most advanced technology models to China, so most of the models introduced by domestic manufacturers are second-class and third-class models, and some are even very immature and have not been truly tested by the market. At present, the mainstream model in the world is MW, and models below MW are about to die out, so the market share of companies whose follow-up products are still below MW will gradually shrink

batch units have been running reliably for more than half a year: whether a fan is really stable and reliable does not mean that the prototype is produced, nor that the success of the prototype is bound to be successful. Because most of the parts of the prototype are imported, and some parts in batches will be localized, and the faults of some parts will not be reflected until they are put into operation for at least half a year. It must be operated in batches for more than half a year without problems before it can be basically a successful model

strong continuous R & D capability: internationally, major complete machine manufacturers have a series of models to meet the requirements of different wind farms in different countries. At present, many manufacturers in China are imported models, so it is also crucial to develop a series of models in the future to truly digest the technology. In this regard, we are more optimistic about manufacturers with strong historical background of electromechanical development, such as Dongfang turbine, Shanghai Electric, etc

it can solve the bottleneck of parts supply: relatively more and more enterprises enter the military wind turbine manufacturing industry with enthusiasm, and the domestic production of wind turbine parts will be neglected. At present, the electronic universal tension experiment in China is divided into: measurement system, drive system, control system and computer software system, etc., and the large-scale production of wind turbine blades, gear boxes There are only twoorthree enterprises of generator and control system respectively, which are far from meeting the market demand, but there are not many enterprises capable of entering this market gap. Mainly because 1 Large fixed investment. 2. The technology is too professional

investment strategy: invest in wind power machine manufacturers with mature technology and leading companies of wind power components

year: supply chain integration is the key

it is predicted that after 2009, the technology digestion and introduction of major domestic complete machine manufacturers will be basically completed. Manufacturers without reliable technology will be eliminated by the market, and there will be about 15 complete machine manufacturers in the market

the smooth supply chain is the key to ensure production capacity: major machine manufacturers have begun to produce on a large scale or integrate the parts industry by means of mergers and acquisitions. We predict that at that time, the proportion of self-produced blades will be more than 50%, and generators and gearboxes will also start their own production. Only complete machine manufacturers with smooth supply chain can ensure the completion of production capacity and orders

the advantage of cost control began to emerge: at this stage, many domestic machine manufacturers have reached the level of mass production, and the gap between supply and demand has been alleviated. On the premise of stable performance, price will become one of the competitive factors. From our analysis, the cost mainly consists of production cost, labor cost and warranty cost. The warranty cost depends on technology and quality control. The labor cost in China is low and has little difference, while the production cost depends on the parts supporting integration ability of the whole machine manufacturer

investment strategy: select wind turbine manufacturers with complete supply chain

year: the stage of opening up the international market

it is predicted that after 2011, China's wind power equipment manufacturers will gradually mature, and then there will be wind power complete machine manufacturers with international competitiveness and wind power parts manufacturers with international competitiveness

the international competitiveness of wind power equipment has been greatly enhanced: China's equipment manufacturing industry has advantages in technology and labor costs, and wind turbine manufacturing can also be said to be a relatively labor-intensive manufacturing industry. Therefore, we believe that after 2011, after last year's domestic market cultivation, China's advantageous wind power equipment manufacturers will be able to rush out of the country and go to the world in terms of technology and cost. Facing them will be the broader international market and many countries that have implemented the major project of "research and development and utilization of key new materials" and have not developed wind power. At that time, China's advantageous wind power equipment manufacturers will usher in another spring

enterprise consolidation and mergers will be very frequent: after last year's market competition, the current competition pattern is basically established. The phenomenon that large machine manufacturers acquire small machine manufacturers, and machine manufacturers acquire and merge parts manufacturers will be very frequent

potential analysis of wind power resources in China:

wind energy is the most promising new energy, which is inexhaustible and pollution-free. The reserve of global wind energy resources is 10 times that of hydropower resources, which is as high as 53 trillion kwh/year in all kinds of machinery and equipment. Theoretically, as long as 50% of the wind energy resources are developed, the global demand for electric energy can be met

China is rich in wind resources. According to the data provided by the National Meteorological Administration, the total reserves of wind energy resources at a height of 10 meters on land in China are about 3.226 billion kw, of which 253 million KW can be developed and utilized, accounting for about 7.8%. In theory, the wind resource at 50 meters height is twice as high as that at 10 meters height, and will increase at 100 meters height. In the future, the total height of fans with a single unit capacity of more than 1MW will reach 100 meters. Therefore, China's onshore wind resources are 500million kW, and the estimation that there are 17 parts of steel doors is not exaggerated. It is generally recognized that the offshore wind resources are times that of land, and China's offshore wind resources are also 1.5 billion kw by three times